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Gaurang Shah Exposes Three Stocks Driving India's Market Momentum

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Gaurang Shah, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, has identified a trio of Indian market movers drawing fresh attention from retail and institutional investors alike. The Mumbai-based analyst pointed to Nykaa's continued expansion, Bata India's long-anticipated turnaround, and the impending National Stock Exchange IPO as the key themes shaping domestic market sentiment in the coming quarters.

Nykaa's Growth Trajectory Remains Intact

Nykaa, the beauty and personal care retailer founded by Falguni Nayar, has defied broader consumer spending concerns with its latest quarterly performance. The company reported a 25% year-over-year increase in revenue during its most recent reporting period, driven by strong demand across tier-two and tier-three cities in India. Shah cited Nykaa's expanding private-label portfolio and its growing presence in the men's grooming segment as key growth catalysts.

The stock has recovered approximately 18% from its 52-week low, attracting renewed interest from mid-cap focused funds. Market participants note that Nykaa's direct-to-consumer model gives it pricing power that traditional retailers struggle to match. The company's logistics infrastructure now covers over 1,800 pin codes across India, a significant expansion from its initial urban-centric footprint.

Bata India's Turnaround Gains Traction

Bata India has spent years battling declining foot traffic in shopping districts and intensifying competition from online footwear brands. That narrative appears to be shifting. The company reported a 12% rise in same-store sales during the September quarter, its strongest performance in six reporting periods. Bata has also reduced its inventory backlog by nearly 30% through supply chain optimisation efforts launched in early 2024.

Shah told analysts that Bata's renewed focus on athletic and semi-formal footwear aligns with changing consumer preferences in India's urban centres. The Swiss-founded brand, which has operated in India since the 1930s, is also piloting a store-in-store format within major shopping malls, a departure from its traditional high-street footprint. If the pilot performs well, Bata plans to replicate the model across 50 locations by the end of the fiscal year.

NSE IPO Enters Final Preparations

The National Stock Exchange, India's largest equity derivatives venue by volume, moved closer to its long-awaited public listing. Regulators approved the exchange's revised prospectus in October, clearing one of the final hurdles before a potential listing. The offering is expected to raise approximately 100 billion rupees ($1.2 billion) at the top end of the anticipated range, making it one of India's largest domestic equity issuances.

Institutional investors have signalled strong demand for the NSE shares, viewing the listing as a rare opportunity to gain exposure to India's exchange infrastructure. The NSE handles over 90% of India's daily equity derivatives volume, a monopoly position that underpins its pricing power. For retail investors, the listing represents access to an asset class typically reserved for large institutional players.

What This Means for Market Participants

Shah's commentary arrives as India's benchmark indices hover near record levels, raising questions about valuation discipline. The three names he highlighted represent distinct risk profiles: Nykaa offers exposure to consumer discretionary growth, Bata embodies a classic turnaround play, and the NSE IPO provides infrastructure-level access to India's capital markets.

Geojit Investments manages approximately 450 billion rupees in client assets across its distribution network in southern and western India. The firm's research arm has been incrementally increasing its exposure to mid-cap consumer and financial sector names over the past six months, positioning for a potential shift away from the large-cap heavy weighting that has dominated Indian equity flows.

Broader Market Context

India's domestic equity markets have attracted significant foreign portfolio investment in 2024, with net inflows exceeding 1.5 trillion rupees through October. Simultaneously, domestic mutual funds have recorded consistent net subscriptions, reflecting broader participation beyond institutional circles. The combination has supported elevated valuations across multiple sectors.

For investors weighing entry points, Shah counseled a measured approach. He noted that Bata's turnaround remains early-stage and subject to execution risk, while Nykaa's valuation has partially compressed following its earlier sell-off. The NSE IPO, meanwhile, will likely see significant demand regardless of macro conditions, given its unique market position.

Looking Ahead

The NSE listing is pencilled in for late November or early December, subject to final market conditions. Bata India is scheduled to report its December quarter results in mid-January, which will serve as the next major data point for turnaround sceptics. Nykaa has not announced a specific date for its next quarterly disclosure but is expected to release results before the end of the calendar year. Market participants will be watching all three closely as India's earnings season unfolds.

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